Asteroid 2024 YR₄ Could Hit the Moon in 2032 and Send Dangerous Debris Toward Earth

A rare but real risk

An asteroid named 2024 YR4 (asteroid 2024 YR4 lunar impact) , about 60 meters wide (roughly the size of a tall office building), might hit the Moon on December 22, 2032. Scientists estimate there is a 4 percent chance that it could strike the lunar surface.

If that happens, the collision would release energy equal to 6.5 megatons of TNT and create a crater about one kilometer across. Events of this scale are not common. A crater that large only forms on the Moon about once every 5,000 years.

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What happens if it hits?

A powerful impact of this size could blast up to 100 million metric tons of Moon rock into space. Some of that debris could fly fast enough to escape the Moon’s gravity and travel toward Earth.

The debris would be made up of particles of different sizes. Some could be as small as a grain of sand and others as large as pebbles. These tiny pieces would move at extremely high speeds, and if they reached Earth’s orbit they could pose a threat to satellites.

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How likely is that debris to reach us?

Computer simulations show that the odds depend on the location of the impact. If the asteroid struck on the trailing side of the Moon (the side moving away from Earth in its orbit), the debris would be more likely to head our way. This is because the Moon’s motion helps fling particles in Earth’s direction.

In simulated impacts across different points on the Moon’s surface, about 10 percent of cases sent a significant amount of debris toward Earth within 100 days. Combined with the 4 percent chance of impact, scientists estimate the overall chance of a major debris storm affecting Earth is around 1 percent. That may sound small, but it is still a much higher risk than what experts normally consider acceptable for space hazards.

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What would satellites face?

If this event takes place, the amount of dust around Earth could suddenly spike to 10 to 1,000 times higher than normal. This would last for several days.

Normally, satellites are designed to handle a steady trickle of micrometeoroid impacts over many years. But a lunar debris storm could deliver the same level of wear and tear in just a few days. That means more surface damage, higher chances of electronics being hit, and even the possibility of satellites failing. This would be especially concerning for spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit and medium-level orbits, where the density of satellites is already growing quickly.

By 2032, there will likely be thousands more satellites than today. A sudden storm of lunar dust could cause serious disruption.

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Could we see it from Earth?

Yes, there is a chance. Some of the smaller particles would be pulled into Earth’s atmosphere. Estimates suggest Earth could receive 1,000 to 10,000 tonnes of lunar material. That is hundreds or even thousands of times more than the daily amount of dust our planet usually collects from space.

This would create a temporary meteor shower. Unlike typical shooting stars, these meteors would likely be dimmer because they would strike the atmosphere at slower speeds. Even so, it could be a unique and unusual sight.

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Why this matters

Most planetary defense plans today focus on preventing asteroids from hitting Earth directly. This study shows that we also need to think about what happens in the space between Earth and the Moon. Even if an asteroid does not crash into our planet, an impact on the Moon could still cause trouble by filling Earth’s orbit with dangerous debris.

Such an event could affect not only satellites but also lunar missions, space stations, and astronauts traveling between Earth and the Moon.

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What happens next?

Scientists do not yet know exactly where asteroid 2024 YR₄ will pass in 2032. More observations are needed to refine its path. The asteroid will become visible again in 2028, and those observations will give researchers a much clearer picture of the risks.

For now, the event serves as a reminder. Our planetary defense plans should not only protect Earth itself, but also the space around it, especially as human activity in space continues to grow.

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Quick summary

• Asteroid 2024 YR₄ has a 4 percent chance of hitting the Moon in 2032.
• The impact could create a 1-kilometer crater and release 100 million tonnes of debris.
• About 1 percent overall chance exists that debris would flood Earth’s orbit.
• Satellites could face years of normal micrometeoroid exposure in just a few days.
• Earth might see a rare lunar meteor shower.
• More observations in 2028 will help clarify the risks.

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Final thoughts

While the chances are low, the possibility of an asteroid striking the Moon and sending debris toward Earth cannot be ignored. For the satellites that keep our world connected and for future missions to the Moon, this kind of risk could be significant.

It also reminds us that space hazards come in many forms, not just direct hits to Earth. As we continue to expand into space, protecting the area between Earth and the Moon will become just as important as protecting our planet itself. asteroid 2024 YR4 lunar impact

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Source
Paul Wiegert, Peter Brown, Jack Lopes, Martin Connors. The Potential Danger to Satellites due to Ejecta from a 2032 Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR₄. arXiv:2506.11217v2, submitted June 12, 2025, revised August 14, 2025. https://arxiv.org/html/2506.11217v2

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